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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.74+6.67vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.18+8.05vs Predicted
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3George Washington University3.41+6.02vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.21+5.49vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+2.33vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.24+3.48vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston4.09-0.85vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.53vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.71-1.51vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.82+1.52vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.06-0.54vs Predicted
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12Yale University4.08-5.56vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.55-0.85vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.60-6.22vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-7.26vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University1.95-1.50vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-5.12vs Predicted
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182.75-6.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.67Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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10.05Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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9.02George Washington University3.410.0%1st Place
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9.49Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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7.33Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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9.48Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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6.15College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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10.53St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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7.49Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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11.52Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
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10.46Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
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6.44Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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12.15Old Dominion University2.550.0%1st Place
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7.78Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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14.5Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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11.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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11.372.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will La Dow | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 11.4% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 4.7% |
| Martim Anderson | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Jack Bitney | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
| Ian Barrows | 11.5% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| James Jacob | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 13.2% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Mark Davies | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 36.1% |
| Michael Munger | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 11.3% |
| Erik Weis | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.