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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.08+5.36vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+5.51vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+4.99vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston4.09+2.06vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.41+3.74vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+5.72vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.06+3.32vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.21+1.55vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.24+0.47vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College3.18+0.04vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.60-2.85vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.08vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.71-5.55vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.82-3.10vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.74-7.58vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University1.95-1.51vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.55-4.47vs Predicted
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182.75-6.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.36Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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7.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.06College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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8.74George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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10.32Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
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9.55Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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9.47Boston University3.240.0%1st Place
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10.04Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.15Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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10.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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7.45Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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10.9Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
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7.42Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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14.49Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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12.53Old Dominion University2.550.0%1st Place
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11.382.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 10.1% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Ty Ingram | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Nikole Barnes | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 12.4% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Kai Friesecke | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Michael Munger | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 9.9% |
| Roger Dorr | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| Ravi Parent | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 3.4% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 6.7% |
| Martim Anderson | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Jack Bitney | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.5% |
| Will La Dow | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Mark Davies | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 35.5% |
| James Jacob | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 14.8% |
| Erik Weis | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.