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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+6.91vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.24+7.62vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston4.09+3.17vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+3.14vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.08+1.04vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.74+1.36vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.41+1.68vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.95+6.21vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.44vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College3.18-0.07vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.06-0.70vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.60-3.76vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.71-5.68vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.55-2.11vs Predicted
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152.75-3.60vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.82-4.75vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.71-5.28vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-6.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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9.62Boston University3.240.0%1st Place
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6.17College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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7.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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6.04Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.36Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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8.68George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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14.21Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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10.44St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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9.93Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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10.3Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
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8.24Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.32Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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11.89Old Dominion University2.550.0%1st Place
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11.42.750.0%1st Place
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11.25Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
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11.72Connecticut College2.710.0%1st Place
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11.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikole Barnes | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Ravi Parent | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ty Ingram | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Ian Barrows | 12.5% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Will La Dow | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Kai Friesecke | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Mark Davies | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 35.3% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% |
| Jack McGuire | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| James Jacob | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.3% |
| Erik Weis | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.5% |
| Jack Bitney | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% |
| Walter Florio | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 9.2% |
| Michael Munger | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.