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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.08+5.24vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.41+6.87vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.06+7.45vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.74+3.26vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+6.46vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston4.09+0.05vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.24+2.35vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-0.36vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.51vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-2.55vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.82+0.32vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.71-4.18vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.55-0.98vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.60-6.33vs Predicted
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152.75-3.62vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.71-4.35vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.95-2.55vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College3.18-8.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.24Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.87George Washington University3.410.0%1st Place
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10.45Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
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7.26Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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11.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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6.05College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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9.35Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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10.51St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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7.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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11.32Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
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7.82Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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12.02Old Dominion University2.550.0%1st Place
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7.67Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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11.382.750.0%1st Place
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11.65Connecticut College2.710.0%1st Place
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14.45Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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9.4Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 10.4% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% |
| Will La Dow | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Michael Munger | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Nikole Barnes | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Jack Bitney | 4.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| James Jacob | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 12.6% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Erik Weis | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 7.4% |
| Walter Florio | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% |
| Mark Davies | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 34.0% |
| Jack McGuire | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.