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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+3.95vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+6.06vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+5.08vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.81+6.00vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.84+1.09vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+0.62vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.17+1.71vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.42-0.41vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.89+0.78vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.96-0.23vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.72-0.28vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.89+1.90vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.20-4.53vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.32-2.19vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.97-5.55vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-4.11vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.24-1.48vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-8.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.95Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.06Georgetown University3.390.0%1st Place
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8.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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10.0Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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6.09College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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6.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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8.71Stanford University3.170.1%1st Place
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7.59Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.78Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.77Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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10.72George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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13.9Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.47Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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11.81Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
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9.45Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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11.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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15.52Northwestern University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 14.9% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Trevor Long | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Jack Cusick | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Adam | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Hannah Polster | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Jack McGraw | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 4.2% |
| Ed Lebens | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 20.5% | 20.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Samuel Shea | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 7.1% |
| Christian Filter | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 1.3% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.0% |
| Noah Rosenthal | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 48.2% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.