← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Connecticut College2.81+9.30vs Predicted
-
2Yale University4.24+2.84vs Predicted
-
3George Washington University2.72+7.78vs Predicted
-
4College of Charleston3.84+2.03vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University2.89+4.72vs Predicted
-
6Georgetown University3.39+1.84vs Predicted
-
7Dartmouth College2.96+2.51vs Predicted
-
8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+3.69vs Predicted
-
9Bowdoin College2.97+0.49vs Predicted
-
10Boston University3.42-2.09vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-3.00vs Predicted
-
12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-4.98vs Predicted
-
13Stanford University3.17-4.44vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-4.50vs Predicted
-
15Roger Williams University1.89-1.40vs Predicted
-
16Harvard University3.20-7.35vs Predicted
-
17Tufts University2.32-4.73vs Predicted
-
18Northwestern University1.24-2.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
10.3Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
-
4.84Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
-
10.78George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
-
6.03College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
-
9.72Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
-
7.84Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
-
9.51Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
-
11.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
-
9.49Bowdoin College2.970.0%1st Place
-
7.91Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
-
8.0Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
-
7.02St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
-
8.56Stanford University3.170.1%1st Place
-
9.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
-
13.6Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
-
8.65Harvard University3.200.0%1st Place
-
12.27Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
-
15.31Northwestern University1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Pemberton | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.3% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| Jack Cusick | 11.3% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| William Logue | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 7.3% |
| Christian Filter | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Hannah Polster | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Trevor Long | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Ed Lebens | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 18.5% | 19.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Samuel Shea | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 9.8% |
| Noah Rosenthal | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 45.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.