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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+3.96vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.84+4.25vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.96+6.80vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.39+3.73vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.81+5.04vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.20+2.63vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+4.78vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.72+2.44vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+0.79vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.42-2.11vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-4.22vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.89-1.85vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-5.29vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.97-4.81vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.89-1.42vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.17-7.24vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.24-1.44vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.32-6.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.96Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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6.25College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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9.8Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.73Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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10.04Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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8.63Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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11.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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10.44George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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9.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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7.89Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.78St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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10.15Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.71Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.19Bowdoin College2.970.0%1st Place
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13.58Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.76Stanford University3.170.0%1st Place
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15.56Northwestern University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.95Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 14.5% | 16.7% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Cusick | 9.9% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack McGraw | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| William Logue | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Carter Pemberton | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 6.1% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 7.8% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 3.0% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Hannah Polster | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Trevor Long | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Christian Filter | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Ed Lebens | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 11.9% | 18.1% | 18.6% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Noah Rosenthal | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 48.8% |
| Samuel Shea | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 6.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.