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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.89+8.98vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.42+5.84vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+5.03vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.96+5.41vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.20+3.53vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+0.58vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.17+1.72vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.84-1.96vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-1.18vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.03vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-1.04vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.32+0.41vs Predicted
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13Yale University4.24-8.34vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.81-4.14vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.89-1.42vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.97-6.43vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.72-6.36vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.24-2.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.98Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.84Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.03Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.41Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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8.53Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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8.72Stanford University3.170.1%1st Place
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6.04College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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7.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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12.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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9.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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12.41Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
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4.66Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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9.86Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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13.58Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
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9.57Bowdoin College2.970.0%1st Place
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10.64George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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15.33Northwestern University1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Elkin | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 2.2% |
| Hannah Polster | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| William Logue | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Jack McGraw | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Bradley Adam | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Jack Cusick | 10.8% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 7.5% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Samuel Shea | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 10.3% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.7% | 15.6% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Pemberton | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Ed Lebens | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 17.5% | 18.2% |
| Christian Filter | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| Noah Rosenthal | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 45.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.