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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+3.99vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.96+7.80vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+5.03vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.72+6.42vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.84+1.03vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+1.86vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+2.80vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+3.69vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-2.39vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.32+2.38vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University1.89+2.64vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.24+3.68vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.20-4.50vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-4.50vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.97-5.51vs Predicted
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16Boston University3.42-8.28vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.81-6.70vs Predicted
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18Stanford University3.17-9.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.99Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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9.8Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
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8.03Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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10.42George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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6.03College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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7.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.8Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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11.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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6.61St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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12.38Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
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13.64Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
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15.68Northwestern University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.5Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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9.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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9.49Bowdoin College2.970.0%1st Place
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7.72Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.3Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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8.55Stanford University3.170.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 15.1% | 14.6% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGraw | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| William Logue | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 2.9% |
| Jack Cusick | 12.3% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 6.7% |
| Bradley Adam | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Shea | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 9.4% |
| Ed Lebens | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 21.1% | 17.8% |
| Noah Rosenthal | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 50.1% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Christian Filter | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Hannah Polster | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.