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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.81+9.45vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.17+7.00vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.84+3.33vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+3.85vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.96+4.54vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.89+3.97vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-0.34vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.39-0.15vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+0.87vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.20-1.05vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+1.04vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.97-2.01vs Predicted
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13Yale University4.24-8.25vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.72-3.67vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University1.93-1.39vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.32-3.70vs Predicted
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17Boston University3.42-9.10vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University1.89-4.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.45Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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9.0Stanford University3.170.0%1st Place
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6.33College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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7.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.54Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
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9.97Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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6.66St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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7.85Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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8.95Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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12.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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9.99Bowdoin College2.970.0%1st Place
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4.75Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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10.33George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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13.61Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
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12.3Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
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7.9Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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13.59Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Pemberton | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Jack Cusick | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Long | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.5% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| William Logue | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 11.0% |
| Christian Filter | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.6% | 15.7% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 23.8% |
| Samuel Shea | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 13.6% |
| Hannah Polster | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Ed Lebens | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 24.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.