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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+4.03vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.81+8.55vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.17+5.99vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+2.63vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+2.93vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.89+3.96vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+4.92vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.39-0.17vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+0.87vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.20-1.07vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.42-3.17vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.84-5.59vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.32-0.93vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.97-4.68vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University1.93-1.42vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.72-5.29vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.96-7.23vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University1.89-4.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.03Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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10.55Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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8.99Stanford University3.170.0%1st Place
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6.63St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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7.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.96Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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11.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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7.83Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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8.93Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.83Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.41College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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12.07Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
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9.32Bowdoin College2.970.0%1st Place
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13.58Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
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10.71George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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9.77Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
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13.66Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 14.3% | 15.1% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Bradley Adam | 9.0% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Trevor Long | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 10.2% |
| William Logue | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Jack Cusick | 10.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Shea | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 12.6% |
| Christian Filter | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 24.6% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Ed Lebens | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 14.7% | 24.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.