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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+3.98vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.81+8.54vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.89+7.19vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.89+9.56vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+2.90vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+0.69vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+2.87vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.39-0.21vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.20-0.36vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.17-0.93vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.42-3.14vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.32+0.60vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.96-3.50vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.84-8.04vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-3.13vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University1.93-2.27vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.97-7.13vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.72-7.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.98Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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10.54Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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10.19Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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13.56Roger Williams University1.890.0%1st Place
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7.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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6.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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7.79Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.64Harvard University3.200.0%1st Place
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9.07Stanford University3.170.1%1st Place
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7.86Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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12.6Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
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9.5Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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5.96College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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11.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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13.73Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.87Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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10.38George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 14.4% | 15.6% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 2.5% |
| Ed Lebens | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 15.9% | 24.8% |
| Trevor Long | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% |
| William Logue | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Samuel Shea | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 15.5% |
| Jack McGraw | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| Jack Cusick | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 8.7% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 25.1% |
| Christian Filter | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.1% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.