← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1College of Charleston3.84+5.70vs Predicted
-
2Yale University4.24+3.20vs Predicted
-
3Bowdoin College2.97+7.23vs Predicted
-
4Roger Williams University3.77+2.62vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University2.72+5.86vs Predicted
-
6Harvard University3.20+3.01vs Predicted
-
7Stanford University3.17+2.09vs Predicted
-
8Georgetown University3.39+0.11vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College2.81+1.64vs Predicted
-
10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-1.41vs Predicted
-
11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-3.79vs Predicted
-
12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.48vs Predicted
-
13Northwestern University1.24+2.58vs Predicted
-
14Dartmouth College2.96-4.39vs Predicted
-
15Boston University3.42-6.99vs Predicted
-
16Old Dominion University2.89-5.66vs Predicted
-
17Tufts University2.32-4.33vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-7.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.7College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
-
5.2Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
-
10.23Bowdoin College2.970.0%1st Place
-
6.62Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
-
10.86George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
-
9.01Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
-
9.09Stanford University3.170.1%1st Place
-
8.11Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
-
10.64Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
-
8.59Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
-
7.21St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
-
12.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
-
15.58Northwestern University1.240.0%1st Place
-
9.61Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
-
8.01Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
-
10.34Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
-
12.67Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
-
10.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Cusick | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.9% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christian Filter | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 2.2% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.6% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| William Logue | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
| Trevor Long | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 17.5% | 9.7% |
| Noah Rosenthal | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 51.5% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Hannah Polster | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% |
| Samuel Shea | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 16.6% | 11.7% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.