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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.01+7.99vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.44+9.42vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+5.18vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.76+5.71vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.84+4.41vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.14+2.18vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-0.72vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17-0.02vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-1.14vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.23-1.92vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.15-2.71vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.32-0.04vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.82-3.63vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.50-3.39vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.33-7.68vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College2.54-5.16vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.38-5.53vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.27-2.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.99College of Charleston3.010.1%1st Place
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11.42Bowdoin College2.440.0%1st Place
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8.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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9.71Georgetown University2.760.1%1st Place
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9.41Boston University2.840.0%1st Place
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8.18Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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6.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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7.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.1%1st Place
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7.86St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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8.08Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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8.29Stanford University3.150.1%1st Place
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11.96George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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10.61Connecticut College2.500.0%1st Place
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7.32Yale University3.330.1%1st Place
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10.84Dartmouth College2.540.0%1st Place
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11.47Harvard University2.380.0%1st Place
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15.05Northwestern University1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christophe Killian | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Mary Paz | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 6.6% |
| Mack Fox | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Rose Edwards | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| Lydia Grasberger | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Jackson McCoy | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| Alexander Stewart | 10.2% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Easton | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Tara | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Conner Harding | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| William Marshall | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Wade Wagner | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 9.8% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Alexandra Maurillo | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% |
| Louisa Nordstrom | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Margaret Kilvert | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.6% |
| Dylan Farrell | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.1% |
| Jacob Bruce | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 13.1% | 45.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.