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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.82+3.79vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.35+4.63vs Predicted
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3Penn State University1.13+5.15vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.59+1.75vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.16-0.65vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.70-0.54vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.97+0.95vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92-0.06vs Predicted
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9Hampton University0.58-1.89vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.21+1.65vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland-0.45+1.08vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.73-3.39vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.67-4.85vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.60-4.88vs Predicted
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15American University-0.66-2.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79George Washington University1.8213.7%1st Place
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6.63U. S. Naval Academy1.358.3%1st Place
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8.15Penn State University1.134.9%1st Place
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5.75Old Dominion University1.5910.7%1st Place
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4.35U. S. Naval Academy2.1617.5%1st Place
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5.46St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7010.9%1st Place
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7.95Old Dominion University0.975.5%1st Place
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7.94St. Mary's College of Maryland0.925.7%1st Place
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7.11Hampton University0.587.0%1st Place
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11.65William and Mary-0.211.8%1st Place
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12.08University of Maryland-0.450.9%1st Place
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8.61Christopher Newport University0.734.0%1st Place
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8.15Virginia Tech0.675.1%1st Place
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9.12Christopher Newport University0.603.3%1st Place
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12.28American University-0.660.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 13.7% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Leo Robillard | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 10.7% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 17.5% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mason Cook | 10.9% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Scott Opert | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Brown | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 21.1% | 21.0% |
| Sophie Grigg | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 19.3% | 28.7% |
| Joshua Bendura | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 2.7% |
| James Lilyquist | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 3.8% |
| James Cottage | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 18.9% | 34.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.