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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.70+4.44vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.82+2.73vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.35+3.60vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.73+4.64vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.16-0.62vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.97+1.95vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.60+2.17vs Predicted
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8Penn State University1.13-0.09vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.59-3.18vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.67-1.93vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.58-4.11vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92-4.00vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.21-1.56vs Predicted
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14American University-1.01-0.79vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-0.45-3.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7011.7%1st Place
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4.73George Washington University1.8214.4%1st Place
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6.6U. S. Naval Academy1.357.5%1st Place
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8.64Christopher Newport University0.734.2%1st Place
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4.38U. S. Naval Academy2.1617.2%1st Place
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7.95Old Dominion University0.975.1%1st Place
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9.17Christopher Newport University0.603.6%1st Place
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7.91Penn State University1.135.5%1st Place
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5.82Old Dominion University1.599.9%1st Place
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8.07Virginia Tech0.674.5%1st Place
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6.89Hampton University0.587.5%1st Place
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8.0St. Mary's College of Maryland0.924.5%1st Place
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11.44William and Mary-0.211.7%1st Place
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13.21American University-1.010.7%1st Place
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11.74University of Maryland-0.451.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Cook | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 14.4% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Leo Robillard | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Joshua Bendura | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 2.4% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 17.2% | 14.7% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Aston Atherton | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Diogo Silva | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| James Lilyquist | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Tyler Brown | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Scott Opert | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 14.8% | 21.6% | 17.2% |
| Ryan Curtis | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 17.3% | 50.8% |
| Sophie Grigg | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 23.3% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.