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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.40+3.85vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+4.28vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands0.82+5.15vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University1.47+1.52vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-0.36+10.39vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.53+2.48vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.90-0.25vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.31+1.80vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University0.53+1.32vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy0.88-2.39vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.20-0.51vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis0.07-2.16vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-4.70vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-4.95vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.41-0.85vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.70-1.31vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-0.79vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-2.86vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-2.06-0.21vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands-1.54-2.70vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-2.07-2.27vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-4.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.85University of Southern California1.4015.5%1st Place
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6.28University of California at Santa Barbara1.2210.7%1st Place
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8.15California State University Channel Islands0.826.3%1st Place
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5.52San Diego State University1.4712.4%1st Place
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15.39University of California at Irvine-0.361.1%1st Place
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8.48California Poly Maritime Academy0.536.0%1st Place
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6.75University of Southern California0.908.6%1st Place
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9.8University of California at Berkeley0.313.5%1st Place
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10.32San Diego State University0.533.5%1st Place
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7.61California Poly Maritime Academy0.887.3%1st Place
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10.49University of Southern California0.202.7%1st Place
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9.84University of California at Davis0.074.5%1st Place
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8.3University of California at Santa Cruz0.916.3%1st Place
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9.05Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.355.0%1st Place
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14.15Arizona State University-0.412.1%1st Place
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14.69University of California at San Diego-0.700.7%1st Place
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16.21University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.1%1st Place
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15.14University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.0%1st Place
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18.79University of California at Irvine-2.060.4%1st Place
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17.3California State University Channel Islands-1.540.5%1st Place
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18.73University of California at San Diego-2.070.4%1st Place
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17.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 15.5% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 12.4% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 3.7% |
| Sam Jennings | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Cuyler | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McKinley | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Liam Williams | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 2.9% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 17.2% | 30.8% |
| Brent Lin | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 12.0% |
| Alexis Gregorie | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 18.3% | 28.0% |
| Daniel Gates | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.