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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University0.99+2.92vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.78+0.50vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.52+0.04vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College0.83+0.25vs Predicted
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6University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.60+2.56vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire0.49-2.19vs Predicted
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8Fairfield University-1.07-0.46vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.27-2.88vs Predicted
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10University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.03-0.77vs Predicted
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11Sacred Heart University-2.40-1.35vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.41-5.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.92Tufts University0.990.1%1st Place
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2.5University of Rhode Island1.780.3%1st Place
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3.04Tufts University1.520.2%1st Place
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4.25Middlebury College0.830.1%1st Place
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8.56University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.600.0%1st Place
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4.81University of New Hampshire0.490.1%1st Place
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7.54Fairfield University-1.070.0%1st Place
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6.12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.270.0%1st Place
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9.23University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.030.0%1st Place
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9.65Sacred Heart University-2.400.0%1st Place
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6.37University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Gonick | 12.9% | 13.6% | 17.6% | 17.5% | 16.7% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Pearson | 33.3% | 23.8% | 20.0% | 11.3% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Lenz | 21.0% | 24.5% | 17.4% | 16.4% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Scatchard | 11.1% | 12.8% | 14.7% | 15.8% | 16.8% | 13.3% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Isabella Luciano | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 15.1% | 19.5% | 25.9% | 16.3% |
| Jenna Hannafin | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 16.1% | 11.8% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Isaac Bode | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 19.7% | 19.9% | 14.3% | 5.7% |
| Regina Collari | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 19.2% | 15.1% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| Alex Cooper | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 9.8% | 18.0% | 26.6% | 31.0% |
| Tom Coughlin | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 14.5% | 22.8% | 44.7% |
| Griffin Brayer | 3.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 19.3% | 17.7% | 11.9% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.