← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Southern California1.40+3.95vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+4.39vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California0.90+3.79vs Predicted
-
4California Poly Maritime Academy0.88+3.76vs Predicted
-
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35+4.19vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley0.31+3.94vs Predicted
-
7California Poly Maritime Academy0.53+1.38vs Predicted
-
8California State University Channel Islands0.82-0.09vs Predicted
-
9University of Southern California0.20+1.52vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Irvine-0.36+5.43vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-2.87vs Predicted
-
12San Diego State University1.47-6.42vs Predicted
-
13Arizona State University-0.41+0.87vs Predicted
-
14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+3.13vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Davis0.07-5.13vs Predicted
-
16San Diego State University0.53-5.87vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-0.64vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-3.10vs Predicted
-
19California State University Channel Islands-1.54-1.70vs Predicted
-
20University of California at Irvine-2.06-1.09vs Predicted
-
21University of California at San Diego-2.07-2.29vs Predicted
-
22University of California at San Diego-0.70-7.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.95University of Southern California1.4015.2%1st Place
-
6.39University of California at Santa Barbara1.229.4%1st Place
-
6.79University of Southern California0.908.5%1st Place
-
7.76California Poly Maritime Academy0.886.6%1st Place
-
9.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.354.4%1st Place
-
9.94University of California at Berkeley0.314.6%1st Place
-
8.38California Poly Maritime Academy0.535.5%1st Place
-
7.91California State University Channel Islands0.827.0%1st Place
-
10.52University of Southern California0.204.5%1st Place
-
15.43University of California at Irvine-0.361.2%1st Place
-
8.13University of California at Santa Cruz0.917.1%1st Place
-
5.58San Diego State University1.4712.7%1st Place
-
13.87Arizona State University-0.411.2%1st Place
-
17.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.5%1st Place
-
9.87University of California at Davis0.073.8%1st Place
-
10.13San Diego State University0.533.4%1st Place
-
16.36University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.5%1st Place
-
14.9University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.7%1st Place
-
17.3California State University Channel Islands-1.540.7%1st Place
-
18.91University of California at Irvine-2.060.4%1st Place
-
18.71University of California at San Diego-2.070.4%1st Place
-
14.85University of California at San Diego-0.700.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 15.2% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Cuyler | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Wilton Lawton | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sam Jennings | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McKinley | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
| Colin Olson | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Aston Smith | 12.7% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Daniel Gates | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 11.5% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Liam Williams | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 6.2% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Brent Lin | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 12.3% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 32.0% |
| Alexis Gregorie | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 19.3% | 27.5% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.