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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Middlebury College0.83+3.17vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.52+0.92vs Predicted
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3Tufts University0.99+0.91vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire0.49-0.17vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.78-3.45vs Predicted
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7University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.03+2.22vs Predicted
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8University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.41-1.67vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.60-0.48vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University-1.07-2.25vs Predicted
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11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.27-4.89vs Predicted
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12Sacred Heart University-2.40-2.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.17Middlebury College0.830.1%1st Place
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2.92Tufts University1.520.2%1st Place
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3.91Tufts University0.990.1%1st Place
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4.83University of New Hampshire0.490.1%1st Place
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2.55University of Rhode Island1.780.3%1st Place
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9.22University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.030.0%1st Place
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6.33University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.410.0%1st Place
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8.52University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.600.0%1st Place
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7.75Fairfield University-1.070.0%1st Place
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6.11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.270.0%1st Place
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9.67Sacred Heart University-2.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Scatchard | 10.9% | 11.4% | 17.1% | 17.0% | 17.7% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Lenz | 22.4% | 25.3% | 19.5% | 16.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elena Gonick | 13.0% | 13.9% | 17.8% | 16.1% | 16.7% | 12.0% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jenna Hannafin | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 16.5% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Pearson | 32.6% | 26.2% | 16.7% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Cooper | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 16.1% | 27.0% | 30.7% |
| Griffin Brayer | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 18.1% | 16.8% | 12.0% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Isabella Luciano | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 22.2% | 22.8% | 15.6% |
| Isaac Bode | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 19.9% | 21.7% | 16.0% | 6.7% |
| Regina Collari | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 16.0% | 17.9% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 0.5% |
| Tom Coughlin | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 23.7% | 44.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.