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📊 Prediction Accuracy
59.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.40+4.03vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.47+3.69vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine-0.36+12.61vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy0.53+4.51vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy0.88+2.86vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.90+0.67vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.22-0.39vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.31+1.73vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands0.82-0.94vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-1.77vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.20-0.49vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University0.53-1.68vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-3.90vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.07-4.00vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.41-0.41vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.70-1.37vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-1.54+0.48vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.11-1.75vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-1.69vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-4.84vs Predicted
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21University of California at Irvine-2.06-1.79vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-5.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.03University of Southern California1.4014.2%1st Place
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5.69San Diego State University1.4712.4%1st Place
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15.61University of California at Irvine-0.360.9%1st Place
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8.51California Poly Maritime Academy0.536.2%1st Place
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7.86California Poly Maritime Academy0.887.6%1st Place
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6.67University of Southern California0.908.7%1st Place
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6.61University of California at Santa Barbara1.228.5%1st Place
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9.73University of California at Berkeley0.314.5%1st Place
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8.06California State University Channel Islands0.825.8%1st Place
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8.23University of California at Santa Cruz0.916.3%1st Place
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10.51University of Southern California0.203.4%1st Place
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10.32San Diego State University0.533.9%1st Place
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9.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.355.3%1st Place
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10.0University of California at Davis0.074.5%1st Place
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14.59Arizona State University-0.411.1%1st Place
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14.63University of California at San Diego-0.701.5%1st Place
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17.48California State University Channel Islands-1.540.6%1st Place
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16.25University of California at San Diego-1.110.8%1st Place
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17.31Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.8%1st Place
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15.16University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.6%1st Place
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19.21University of California at Irvine-2.060.4%1st Place
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16.45University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 14.2% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 12.4% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 5.3% |
| Sam Jennings | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Cuyler | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sterling Maggard | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Colin Olson | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McKinley | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Brent Lin | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 15.7% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 6.7% |
| Daniel Gates | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 15.2% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 4.1% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 15.8% | 37.9% |
| Liam Williams | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 9.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.