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📊 Prediction Accuracy
72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+2.14vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.74+0.21vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.14+1.88vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.33+0.47vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.53+1.03vs Predicted
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6Santa Barbara City College2.17-1.28vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.61+0.87vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.53-1.97vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine1.06-2.05vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-1.20vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.14University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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2.21Stanford University3.740.4%1st Place
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4.88University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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4.47University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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6.03University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
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4.72Santa Barbara City College2.170.1%1st Place
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7.87University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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6.03University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
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6.95University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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8.8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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5.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristopher Swanson | 20.8% | 24.3% | 18.3% | 14.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will La Dow | 39.8% | 25.5% | 18.4% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 8.6% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 7.9% | 12.5% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 16.6% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Wilson | 9.3% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 15.5% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 26.0% | 24.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 16.6% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 18.1% | 21.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 10.3% | 18.1% | 54.8% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 3.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.