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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.96vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.93+1.23vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+2.92vs Predicted
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4Santa Barbara City College2.17+0.63vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.14-0.34vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.53-0.05vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.33-2.69vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine1.06-1.16vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.53-3.05vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.61-2.27vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.3%1st Place
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3.23Stanford University2.930.2%1st Place
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5.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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4.63Santa Barbara City College2.170.1%1st Place
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4.66University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
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4.31University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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6.84University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
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7.73University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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8.77University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristopher Swanson | 28.5% | 21.9% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk | 22.4% | 20.0% | 17.4% | 15.9% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 17.9% | 16.3% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Dane Wilson | 8.9% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 15.2% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 10.4% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 15.2% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 19.3% | 19.5% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 15.6% | 26.5% | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 17.8% | 55.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.