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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+2.03vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.14+2.77vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+2.92vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.15-1.13vs Predicted
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5Santa Barbara City College2.17-0.41vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.53-0.03vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine1.060.00vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.33-3.68vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.53-3.03vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-1.21vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.61-3.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.03University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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4.77University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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5.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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2.87Stanford University3.150.3%1st Place
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4.59Santa Barbara City College2.170.1%1st Place
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5.97University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
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7.0University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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4.32University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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5.97University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
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8.79University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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7.74University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristopher Swanson | 24.6% | 22.7% | 18.4% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 9.6% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 16.6% | 16.8% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| William Marshall | 26.6% | 24.0% | 17.0% | 14.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Wilson | 11.2% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 20.9% | 20.5% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 10.8% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 18.4% | 56.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 14.7% | 27.4% | 23.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.