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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+2.08vs Predicted
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2Santa Barbara City College2.29+2.26vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.92+0.16vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.17-1.28vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.72+0.21vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.92+0.81vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.26+1.11vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.92-1.19vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.92-2.21vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine0.27-2.00vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-4.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.08University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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4.26Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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3.16University of Hawaii2.920.2%1st Place
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2.72Stanford University3.170.3%1st Place
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5.21University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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6.81University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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8.11University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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6.81University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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6.79University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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8.0University of California at Irvine0.270.0%1st Place
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6.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Long | 22.0% | 22.5% | 20.0% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Silas Barton | 11.1% | 11.4% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.6% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chuck Eaton | 20.4% | 20.3% | 20.4% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 27.7% | 24.3% | 18.1% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 18.2% | 14.8% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 16.2% | 18.2% | 15.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 16.5% | 21.2% | 32.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 16.2% | 18.2% | 15.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 15.5% | 18.2% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Egemen Gok | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 22.5% | 31.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 16.3% | 17.3% | 16.9% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.