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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+2.08vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.17+0.77vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.92+0.16vs Predicted
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4Santa Barbara City College2.29+0.23vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+1.77vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.72-0.73vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.92-0.11vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-0.02vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.92-2.16vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.92-3.11vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine0.27-2.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.08University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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2.77Stanford University3.170.3%1st Place
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3.16University of Hawaii2.920.2%1st Place
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4.23Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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6.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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5.27University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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6.89University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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7.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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6.84University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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6.89University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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8.01University of California at Irvine0.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Long | 23.1% | 22.3% | 17.9% | 15.3% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 27.2% | 24.2% | 18.2% | 15.0% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chuck Eaton | 21.4% | 19.6% | 19.0% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Silas Barton | 10.2% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 17.9% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 20.5% | 16.1% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 18.1% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 21.7% | 32.5% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 15.7% | 19.2% | 16.4% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 18.1% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| Egemen Gok | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 21.2% | 32.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.