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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.52+5.53vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.06vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.78vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.50+2.81vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.51+1.55vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+1.31vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.25+0.72vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.49-1.35vs Predicted
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9Hampton University3.02-0.35vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University2.21+1.50vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech1.79+1.88vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.80-2.69vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech1.79-0.12vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-5.21vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-1.95vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.54-5.68vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.63-3.62vs Predicted
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18Queen's University1.85-5.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.53Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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6.06U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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4.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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6.81Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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6.55Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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7.72SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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6.65George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.65Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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11.5Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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12.88Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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9.31University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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12.88Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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8.79St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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13.05Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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10.32Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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13.38Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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12.69Queen's University1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Holz | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 14.5% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 18.5% | 18.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 18.5% | 18.7% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 24.1% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 14.5% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.