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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+3.84vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.18vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.25+4.77vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+2.36vs Predicted
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5Hampton University3.02+3.50vs Predicted
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6George Washington University3.49+1.12vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+0.35vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.52-1.25vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.65vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech1.79+2.93vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University2.21+0.66vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.50-5.13vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology1.76+0.06vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.52-0.22vs Predicted
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15Queen's University1.85-2.31vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.54-5.46vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University3.51-10.05vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech1.79-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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6.18U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.77SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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6.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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8.5Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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7.12George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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9.65University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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12.93Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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11.66Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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6.87Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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13.06Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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13.78Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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12.69Queen's University1.850.0%1st Place
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10.54Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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6.95Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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12.93Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 16.3% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 17.8% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 17.2% | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 30.2% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 16.7% | 16.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 17.8% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.