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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+5.21vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.51+4.83vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+4.38vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.03vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.52+1.70vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+0.46vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.490.00vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.80+1.33vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech1.79+4.07vs Predicted
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10Hampton University3.02-1.44vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech1.79+2.07vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology1.76+1.01vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.25-5.24vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University2.21-2.33vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.50-7.97vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.54-5.60vs Predicted
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17Queen's University1.85-4.16vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.52-4.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.21U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.83Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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5.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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6.7Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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6.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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7.0George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.33University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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13.07Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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8.56Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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13.07Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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13.01Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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7.76SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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11.67Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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7.03Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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10.4Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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12.84Queen's University1.850.0%1st Place
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13.72Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Snow | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 14.2% | 15.0% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 19.6% | 16.8% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 19.6% | 16.8% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 22.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 18.0% | 27.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.