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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
5.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+6.22vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.24vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.52+3.86vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech1.79+8.93vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.85+7.67vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+3.77vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University2.21+4.70vs Predicted
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8Washington College1.52+5.52vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.50-1.85vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology1.76+3.02vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-4.52vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.81-6.10vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.25-4.97vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.54-3.33vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech1.79-2.07vs Predicted
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16George Washington University3.49-9.00vs Predicted
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17Hampton University3.02-8.26vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-12.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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6.24U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.86Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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12.93Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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12.67Queen's University1.850.0%1st Place
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9.77University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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11.7Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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13.52Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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7.15Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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13.02Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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6.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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5.9Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.03SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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10.67Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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12.93Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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7.0George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.74Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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5.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lomax | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 19.6% | 18.0% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 14.7% | 17.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 29.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 18.5% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 9.9% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 10.4% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 19.6% | 18.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 13.5% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.