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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hampton University3.02+7.37vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.49+4.82vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University2.21+8.47vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.00vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.25+2.57vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech1.79+7.03vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.50-0.16vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-0.84vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.81-3.05vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech1.79+3.03vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.38vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.54-1.53vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.80-3.62vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.63-0.58vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-1.94vs Predicted
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16Queen's University1.85-3.33vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.67-10.70vs Predicted
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18Fordham University3.52-11.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.37Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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6.82George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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11.47Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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5.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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7.57SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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13.03Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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6.84Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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5.95Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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13.03Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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8.62St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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10.47Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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9.38University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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13.42Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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13.06Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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12.67Queen's University1.850.0%1st Place
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6.3U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.88Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Kuester | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 15.2% | 14.3% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 17.3% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 17.3% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 17.8% | 24.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 16.5% | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 17.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 8.2% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.