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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.25+6.49vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.85+10.63vs Predicted
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3Hampton University3.02+5.55vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.79vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.10vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+3.58vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-2.12vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.49-1.22vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-1.52vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech1.79+2.83vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.54-0.55vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University2.21-0.45vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech1.79-0.17vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.63-0.57vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.50-8.08vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-3.07vs Predicted
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17Fordham University3.52-10.21vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University3.81-12.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.49SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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12.63Queen's University1.850.0%1st Place
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8.55Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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8.79St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.1U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.58University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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4.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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6.78George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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12.83Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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10.45Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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11.55Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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12.83Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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13.43Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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6.92Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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12.93Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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6.79Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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5.84Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Hill | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 16.2% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 14.5% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 18.3% | 25.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 16.6% | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 7.2% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.