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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.58vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+2.44vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+3.67vs Predicted
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4Hampton University3.02+4.09vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.55+4.75vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+2.79vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University2.21+3.85vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.05vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.85+2.85vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.54-0.28vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.52+1.75vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.52-5.84vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.25-5.93vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-1.91vs Predicted
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15George Washington University3.49-8.63vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University3.06-8.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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4.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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6.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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8.09Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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9.75Old Dominion University2.550.0%1st Place
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8.79University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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10.85Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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7.95St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.85Queen's University1.850.0%1st Place
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9.72Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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12.75Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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6.16Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.07SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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12.09Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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6.37George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.86Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Snow | 12.2% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 18.8% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Charles Lomax | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 4.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| James Jacob | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.5% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 2.3% |
| Austin Powers | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 10.5% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Matti Muru | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| Connor Kelter | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 17.4% | 32.3% |
| Will Holz | 10.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Zachary Hill | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 15.7% | 20.7% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.