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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+5.20vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.63+2.90vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+2.74vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.39+1.85vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.89+2.34vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.26+4.06vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.41-1.33vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.14+2.15vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.25-2.62vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.82+1.42vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.01-0.13vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech1.65+0.09vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.38-3.45vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.51-1.37vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-4.58vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.22-5.92vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech1.65-4.91vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-4.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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4.9U. S. Naval Academy3.630.2%1st Place
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5.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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5.85Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.34Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.06Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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5.67George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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10.15SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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6.38Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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11.42Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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10.87Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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12.09Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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9.55Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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12.63Queen's University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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10.08University of Pennsylvania2.220.0%1st Place
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12.09Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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13.64Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 15.2% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 10.4% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Montagnese | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Kearney | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 15.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.