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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+5.19vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.41+3.59vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+2.73vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.25+2.33vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.39+0.66vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.63-0.81vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.82+4.47vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.89-0.58vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.22+1.18vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+0.33vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+2.67vs Predicted
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12Queen's University1.51+0.48vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.63vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.38-4.43vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech1.65-2.98vs Predicted
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16Hampton University2.26-6.07vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech1.65-4.98vs Predicted
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18Washington College2.01-7.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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5.59George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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5.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.33Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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5.66Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.19U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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11.47Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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7.42Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.18University of Pennsylvania2.220.0%1st Place
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10.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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13.67Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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12.48Queen's University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.37SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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9.57Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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12.02Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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9.93Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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12.02Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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10.85Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 11.7% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 10.3% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 12.4% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 12.9% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Kearney | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 34.8% | 0.0% |
| Michael Montagnese | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 15.9% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 2.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.