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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.39+4.57vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+3.64vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+7.40vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.63+1.08vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.89+2.26vs Predicted
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6George Washington University3.41-0.12vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-0.64vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech1.65+3.82vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.25-2.60vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+3.62vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.38-1.40vs Predicted
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12Queen's University1.51+0.55vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.26-3.05vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.14-3.54vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.01-4.25vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech1.65-4.18vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.82-5.48vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.22-7.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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10.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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5.08U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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7.26Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.88George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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11.82Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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6.4Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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13.62Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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9.6Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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12.55Queen's University1.510.0%1st Place
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9.95Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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10.46SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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10.75Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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11.82Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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11.52Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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10.12University of Pennsylvania2.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | 13.4% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 14.4% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 28.9% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Montagnese | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 15.7% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 2.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Kearney | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.