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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.47vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.25+4.00vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.63+1.88vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+2.34vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.39+0.55vs Predicted
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6George Washington University3.41-0.30vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+6.29vs Predicted
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8Hampton University1.08+5.26vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+1.23vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.89-2.79vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.82+0.34vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.14-1.98vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.22-3.18vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.01-3.34vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech1.65-3.27vs Predicted
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16Queen's University1.51-3.71vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech1.65-5.27vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.38-8.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.0Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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4.88U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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6.34St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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5.55Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.7George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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13.29Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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13.26Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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10.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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7.21Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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11.34Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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10.02SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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9.82University of Pennsylvania2.220.0%1st Place
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10.66Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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11.73Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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12.29Queen's University1.510.0%1st Place
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11.73Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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9.21Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 12.5% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 10.0% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 13.6% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 12.1% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 11.1% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 17.0% | 23.4% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 16.6% | 26.7% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Kearney | 3.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Montagnese | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.