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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.39+4.50vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+3.53vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.25+3.04vs Predicted
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4Hampton University1.08+9.48vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.41+0.44vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.63-0.92vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+0.30vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.22+1.62vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-2.64vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.01+0.42vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech1.65+0.84vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+1.38vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-2.81vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.14-3.84vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.82-3.82vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech1.65-4.16vs Predicted
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17Queen's University1.51-4.74vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.38-8.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.5Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.04Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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13.48Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.44George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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5.08U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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7.3Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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9.62University of Pennsylvania2.220.0%1st Place
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6.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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10.42Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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11.84Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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13.38Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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10.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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10.16SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.18Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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11.84Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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12.26Queen's University1.510.0%1st Place
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9.24Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 16.8% | 27.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 12.6% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Kearney | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 15.6% | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Montagnese | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 2.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.