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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+6.44vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.85+5.26vs Predicted
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3University of Miami3.99+8.31vs Predicted
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4Harvard University4.52+4.80vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston4.76+2.69vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.00+11.99vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+2.22vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont4.60+0.26vs Predicted
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9Washington College4.25+0.86vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy4.34-0.44vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida3.74+1.38vs Predicted
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12Brown University4.28-2.00vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.47+0.68vs Predicted
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14Tufts University4.33-4.43vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.64-2.36vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University5.19-9.98vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University3.92-5.66vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin4.10-7.21vs Predicted
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19SUNY Maritime College4.15-8.57vs Predicted
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20University of Washington2.87-4.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.44St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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7.26Yale University4.850.1%1st Place
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11.31University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
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8.8Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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7.69College of Charleston4.760.1%1st Place
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17.99Boston University2.000.0%1st Place
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9.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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8.26University of Vermont4.600.1%1st Place
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9.86Washington College4.250.0%1st Place
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9.56U. S. Naval Academy4.340.0%1st Place
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12.38University of South Florida3.740.0%1st Place
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10.0Brown University4.280.1%1st Place
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13.68Old Dominion University3.470.0%1st Place
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9.57Tufts University4.330.0%1st Place
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12.64Stanford University3.640.0%1st Place
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6.02Georgetown University5.190.1%1st Place
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11.34Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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10.79University of Wisconsin4.100.0%1st Place
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10.43SUNY Maritime College4.150.0%1st Place
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15.75University of Washington2.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Barrows | 10.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Voss | 4.5% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 2.3% |
| Alan Palmer | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Juan Maegli | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Solomon Tarlin | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 13.8% | 58.8% |
| Samuel Blouin | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Clinton Hayes | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Joseph Blouin | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Robert Vann | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Britton Steele | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 3.3% |
| Jeff Knowles | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Thomas O'Bryan | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 6.3% |
| Tomas Hornos | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Peter Stemler | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 4.2% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 11.6% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 0.8% |
| Shawn Murray | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Glen Stellmacher | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 21.8% | 18.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.