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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.70+4.62vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.35+4.62vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.16+1.43vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.59+1.87vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.60+4.01vs Predicted
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6Penn State University1.13+2.05vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.73+1.50vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92+0.05vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.67-0.88vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.97-1.76vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.82-6.26vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.58-5.20vs Predicted
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13American University-0.61-0.56vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.21-2.36vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-0.45-3.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62St. Mary's College of Maryland1.709.8%1st Place
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6.62U. S. Naval Academy1.357.8%1st Place
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4.43U. S. Naval Academy2.1617.0%1st Place
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5.87Old Dominion University1.599.2%1st Place
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9.01Christopher Newport University0.604.2%1st Place
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8.05Penn State University1.134.6%1st Place
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8.5Christopher Newport University0.734.8%1st Place
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8.05St. Mary's College of Maryland0.925.7%1st Place
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8.12Virginia Tech0.675.1%1st Place
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8.24Old Dominion University0.974.5%1st Place
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4.74George Washington University1.8215.6%1st Place
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6.8Hampton University0.588.0%1st Place
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12.44American University-0.610.8%1st Place
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11.64William and Mary-0.211.7%1st Place
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11.87University of Maryland-0.451.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Cook | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Leo Robillard | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 17.0% | 15.1% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 3.5% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Joshua Bendura | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 2.5% |
| Scott Opert | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| James Lilyquist | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 1.2% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 15.6% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Miles White | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 19.5% | 36.3% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 19.9% | 23.8% |
| Sophie Grigg | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 20.0% | 26.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.