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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+3.60vs Predicted
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2Washington College3.65+3.02vs Predicted
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3Monmouth University1.95+7.61vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.73+4.05vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+0.19vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.37+0.04vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.63-1.88vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.42+4.05vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.13+1.25vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.48-1.21vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.84-3.21vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University0.97+1.49vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.42-3.82vs Predicted
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14Villanova University1.80-2.75vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.70-0.92vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.13-0.73vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30-10.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.2%1st Place
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5.02Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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10.61Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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8.05Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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5.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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6.04U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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5.12University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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12.05Cornell University1.420.0%1st Place
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10.25Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.480.0%1st Place
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7.79George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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13.49Rutgers University0.970.0%1st Place
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9.18SUNY Maritime College2.420.0%1st Place
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11.25Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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14.08Drexel University0.700.0%1st Place
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15.27Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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6.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Padnos | 16.8% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 13.2% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Alexander Sachs | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Frederick Whitman | 12.7% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 12.3% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fitzpatrick | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 6.5% |
| David Coplon | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 0.9% |
| Kevin Reilly | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| William Ricketson | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Pyke | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 17.2% | 20.2% | 16.5% |
| Timothy Hluchan | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Sayre | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 2.2% |
| Jennifer Mislinski | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 23.1% | 23.5% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 19.3% | 47.3% |
| Nick Aswad | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.