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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+4.12vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+2.50vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30+3.03vs Predicted
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4Washington College3.65+1.12vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.73+2.74vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.63-0.83vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.13+2.90vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.23+1.36vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.42+0.04vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.37-4.28vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.48-2.17vs Predicted
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12Villanova University1.80-1.04vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University1.95-2.41vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.42-1.72vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.13+0.09vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University0.97-2.57vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.70-2.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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4.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.2%1st Place
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6.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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5.12Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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7.74Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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5.17University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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9.9Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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9.36George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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9.04SUNY Maritime College2.420.0%1st Place
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5.72U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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8.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.480.0%1st Place
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10.96Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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10.59Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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12.28Cornell University1.420.0%1st Place
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15.09Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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13.43Rutgers University0.970.0%1st Place
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14.13Drexel University0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Whitman | 13.9% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Padnos | 15.2% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Aswad | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 13.5% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Halsey Richartz | 12.0% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Meredith Carroll | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Timothy Hluchan | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Reilly | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Sayre | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 2.2% |
| Paul Stevens | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| Connor Fitzpatrick | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 7.4% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 18.4% | 47.1% |
| Jeremy Pyke | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 20.4% | 14.4% |
| Jennifer Mislinski | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 24.2% | 23.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.