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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+3.51vs Predicted
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2Washington College3.65+2.91vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+2.26vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30+2.08vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.37+0.63vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.63-0.86vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.42+1.96vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.23+1.41vs Predicted
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9Monmouth University1.95+1.67vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.13-0.17vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.48-2.19vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University0.97+1.35vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.73-5.08vs Predicted
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14Drexel University0.70+0.12vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.42-2.90vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.13-0.80vs Predicted
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17Villanova University1.80-5.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.2%1st Place
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4.91Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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5.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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6.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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5.63U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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5.14University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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8.96SUNY Maritime College2.420.0%1st Place
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9.41George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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10.67Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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9.83Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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8.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.480.0%1st Place
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13.35Rutgers University0.970.0%1st Place
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7.92Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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14.12Drexel University0.700.0%1st Place
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12.1Cornell University1.420.0%1st Place
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15.2Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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11.09Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Padnos | 16.2% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Frederick Whitman | 11.2% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Aswad | 10.7% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 11.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 12.2% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Hluchan | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Meredith Carroll | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 0.3% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 2.0% |
| David Coplon | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Kevin Reilly | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy Pyke | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 22.5% | 13.8% |
| Alexander Sachs | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Jennifer Mislinski | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 22.9% | 25.0% |
| Connor Fitzpatrick | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 6.8% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 12.4% | 17.5% | 46.8% |
| Andrew Sayre | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.