← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+2.37vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Berkeley0.86+3.99vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California1.71+1.03vs Predicted
-
4University of Southern California-0.48+7.32vs Predicted
-
5California Poly Maritime Academy0.81+1.31vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Los Angeles0.52+1.22vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+3.33vs Predicted
-
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00+5.76vs Predicted
-
9University of Southern California1.09-3.60vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Davis-1.40+4.95vs Predicted
-
11San Diego State University0.19-2.25vs Predicted
-
12University of California at San Diego-1.13+3.05vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Los Angeles-1.73+3.72vs Predicted
-
14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48+1.46vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Irvine-0.84-2.10vs Predicted
-
16University of California at San Diego-1.41-0.71vs Predicted
-
17San Diego State University-1.24-2.39vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Santa Barbara-0.49-6.78vs Predicted
-
19University of California at Irvine-1.42-3.40vs Predicted
-
20Arizona State University-0.62-8.05vs Predicted
-
21California State University Channel Islands-1.40-5.79vs Predicted
-
22California State University Channel Islands-1.98-4.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.37California Poly Maritime Academy1.9223.4%1st Place
-
5.99University of California at Berkeley0.869.2%1st Place
-
4.03University of Southern California1.7117.0%1st Place
-
11.32University of Southern California-0.482.1%1st Place
-
6.31California Poly Maritime Academy0.818.5%1st Place
-
7.22University of California at Los Angeles0.527.2%1st Place
-
10.33University of California at Santa Cruz-0.292.6%1st Place
-
13.76Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.001.1%1st Place
-
5.4University of Southern California1.0911.0%1st Place
-
14.95University of California at Davis-1.400.9%1st Place
-
8.75San Diego State University0.194.8%1st Place
-
15.05University of California at San Diego-1.131.0%1st Place
-
16.72University of California at Los Angeles-1.730.4%1st Place
-
15.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.480.6%1st Place
-
12.9University of California at Irvine-0.841.5%1st Place
-
15.29University of California at San Diego-1.410.9%1st Place
-
14.61San Diego State University-1.241.1%1st Place
-
11.22University of California at Santa Barbara-0.492.5%1st Place
-
15.6University of California at Irvine-1.420.7%1st Place
-
11.95Arizona State University-0.622.3%1st Place
-
15.21California State University Channel Islands-1.400.6%1st Place
-
17.54California State University Channel Islands-1.980.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 23.4% | 20.2% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 17.0% | 17.7% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Bergan | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Nicolai Perez | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Connelly | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Maximilian Conze | 11.0% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blossom Jee | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% |
| Owen Gormely | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% |
| Andrew Bistras | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 16.1% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| Brayden Money | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Ryan Giorgianni | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 8.9% |
| Gavin Hirz | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 25.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.