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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+3.50vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.73+5.78vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30+2.98vs Predicted
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4Washington College3.65+1.07vs Predicted
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5Monmouth University1.95+5.44vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.63-0.93vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.37-1.15vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.48+0.51vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.42-0.23vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.23-0.47vs Predicted
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11Rutgers University0.97+2.00vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.13-2.19vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56-7.86vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.42-2.16vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.70-1.23vs Predicted
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16Villanova University1.80-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.2%1st Place
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7.78Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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5.07Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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10.44Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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5.07University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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5.85U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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8.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.480.0%1st Place
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8.77SUNY Maritime College2.420.0%1st Place
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9.53George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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13.0Rutgers University0.970.0%1st Place
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9.81Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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5.14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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11.84Cornell University1.420.0%1st Place
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13.77Drexel University0.700.0%1st Place
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10.93Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Padnos | 16.2% | 15.4% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Nick Aswad | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 12.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 4.1% |
| Halsey Richartz | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Reilly | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Timothy Hluchan | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| Meredith Carroll | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Jeremy Pyke | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 21.7% | 28.1% |
| David Coplon | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% |
| Frederick Whitman | 12.3% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fitzpatrick | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 16.4% | 13.3% |
| Jennifer Mislinski | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 20.5% | 39.6% |
| Andrew Sayre | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 10.6% | 6.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.