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📊 Prediction Accuracy
70.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+4.16vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.50+5.63vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+1.30vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+0.76vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.32+3.19vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.68+1.23vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.91vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.29+0.28vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.63-1.51vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.43-2.16vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.74-0.70vs Predicted
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12Villanova University1.24-0.17vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-4.99vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University0.98-1.35vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.72-1.80vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.03-1.03vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University-0.10-1.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.63Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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4.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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4.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.2%1st Place
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8.19Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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7.23University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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6.09U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.28Washington College2.290.1%1st Place
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7.49SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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7.84Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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10.3George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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11.83Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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12.65Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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13.2Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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14.97Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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15.06Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Liberty | 14.4% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 16.8% | 16.3% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 15.5% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Julia Paxton | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Irene Jacqz | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| Sarah Celone | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 15.9% | 16.5% | 8.9% | 3.4% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 15.8% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 8.1% |
| Jason Sinclair | 0.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 17.9% | 20.5% | 10.8% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 22.8% | 37.0% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 12.4% | 23.7% | 38.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.