← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University2.50+6.54vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+3.19vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.08vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+0.79vs Predicted
-
5Washington College2.29+3.25vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60-1.56vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.12vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University2.32+0.15vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Maritime College2.63-1.51vs Predicted
-
10Villanova University1.24+1.82vs Predicted
-
11George Washington University1.74-0.65vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-4.21vs Predicted
-
13Columbia University2.43-4.92vs Predicted
-
14Drexel University0.72-0.63vs Predicted
-
15Monmouth University0.98-2.48vs Predicted
-
16Princeton University-0.03-1.04vs Predicted
-
17Rutgers University-0.10-1.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.54Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
-
5.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
-
6.08U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
4.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
-
8.25Washington College2.290.1%1st Place
-
4.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
-
7.12University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
-
8.15Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
-
7.49SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
-
11.82Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
-
10.35George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
-
7.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
-
8.08Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
-
13.37Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
-
12.52Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
-
14.96Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
-
15.06Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Turchiano | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ian Liberty | 13.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 10.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 14.5% | 14.4% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Kana | 15.6% | 14.5% | 15.3% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Julia Paxton | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Celone | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 9.7% | 3.3% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Irene Jacqz | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Jason Sinclair | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 13.0% | 18.9% | 19.8% | 12.7% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 14.7% | 17.1% | 14.1% | 7.5% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 22.9% | 36.5% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 24.5% | 38.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.