← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Washington College2.29+7.23vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+2.22vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+2.29vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.07vs Predicted
-
5University of Pennsylvania2.68+1.97vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+2.05vs Predicted
-
7Villanova University1.24+4.77vs Predicted
-
8Monmouth University0.98+4.38vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Maritime College2.63-1.54vs Predicted
-
10Cornell University2.32-1.75vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-6.17vs Predicted
-
12Fordham University2.50-4.25vs Predicted
-
13Columbia University2.43-4.91vs Predicted
-
14George Washington University1.74-3.57vs Predicted
-
15Drexel University0.72-1.82vs Predicted
-
16Princeton University-0.03-1.00vs Predicted
-
17Rutgers University-0.10-1.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.23Washington College2.290.1%1st Place
-
4.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
-
5.29St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
-
6.07U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
6.97University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
-
8.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
-
11.77Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
-
12.38Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
-
7.46SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
-
8.25Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
-
4.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.2%1st Place
-
7.75Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
-
8.09Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
-
10.43George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
-
13.18Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
-
15.0Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
-
15.04Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mildred Conroy | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Kana | 17.5% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 11.7% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Celone | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 7.6% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Daniel Liberty | 15.3% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Irene Jacqz | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 0.8% |
| Jason Sinclair | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 18.8% | 18.9% | 12.1% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 25.5% | 36.7% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 13.1% | 22.2% | 39.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.