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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.82+3.73vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech0.67+6.30vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.16+1.52vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.73+4.62vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.70+0.59vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.59-0.24vs Predicted
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7Hampton University0.58-0.14vs Predicted
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8Penn State University1.13-0.01vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.60+0.16vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy1.35-3.40vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.97-3.14vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92-3.83vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.21-1.45vs Predicted
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14American University-0.66-1.56vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-0.45-3.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.73George Washington University1.8214.8%1st Place
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8.3Virginia Tech0.673.8%1st Place
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4.52U. S. Naval Academy2.1616.1%1st Place
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8.62Christopher Newport University0.734.1%1st Place
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5.59St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7011.8%1st Place
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5.76Old Dominion University1.5910.4%1st Place
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6.86Hampton University0.587.3%1st Place
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7.99Penn State University1.134.5%1st Place
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9.16Christopher Newport University0.603.5%1st Place
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6.6U. S. Naval Academy1.357.7%1st Place
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7.86Old Dominion University0.975.6%1st Place
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8.17St. Mary's College of Maryland0.925.5%1st Place
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11.55William and Mary-0.211.6%1st Place
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12.44American University-0.661.6%1st Place
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11.86University of Maryland-0.451.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 14.8% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 1.5% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 16.1% | 15.8% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Mason Cook | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 5.1% |
| Leo Robillard | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Scott Opert | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 20.6% |
| James Cottage | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 20.2% | 36.9% |
| Sophie Grigg | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 19.9% | 26.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.