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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.99vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+2.24vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.73vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+1.34vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+2.73vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.50+1.85vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.19vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.63-0.82vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.32-0.48vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.43-2.19vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.29-2.50vs Predicted
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12Villanova University1.24-0.22vs Predicted
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13Drexel University0.72+0.25vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.03+0.96vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.74-4.75vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-0.10-0.95vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University0.98-4.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.99U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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4.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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5.34St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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7.85Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.19University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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7.18SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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8.52Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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7.81Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.5Washington College2.290.1%1st Place
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11.78Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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13.25Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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14.96Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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10.25George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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15.05Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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12.62Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Edegran | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 17.8% | 14.2% | 15.2% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 14.1% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 13.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Irene Jacqz | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Mildred Conroy | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Celone | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 15.2% | 10.0% | 3.0% |
| Jason Sinclair | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 19.2% | 20.7% | 11.0% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 13.9% | 24.4% | 37.1% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 13.7% | 23.5% | 38.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 16.3% | 14.2% | 8.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.