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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.50+6.51vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.29+6.36vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.07vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+0.39vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.96vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-0.52vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.32+1.36vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.74+2.06vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.63-1.56vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-5.32vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-3.00vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University0.98+0.56vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-0.10+1.95vs Predicted
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14Villanova University1.24-2.06vs Predicted
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15Columbia University2.43-7.01vs Predicted
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16Drexel University0.72-2.71vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.03-2.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.51Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.36Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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7.07University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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4.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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5.96U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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8.36Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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10.06George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.44SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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4.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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8.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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12.56Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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14.95Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.94Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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7.99Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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13.29Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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14.96Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Turchiano | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Michael Russom | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 16.7% | 15.9% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 10.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 11.3% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Julia Paxton | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Liberty | 14.8% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 18.3% | 14.2% | 7.1% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 23.2% | 39.7% |
| Sarah Celone | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% |
| Irene Jacqz | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 18.7% | 18.7% | 10.9% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 22.0% | 37.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.